NBA Draft: Potential more important than Production

My grandfather used to tell me, "you have to strike while the iron is hot." To this day, I don't know what a hot iron being struck has to do with seizing an opportunity but I did learn the lesson. Someone close to Tyrus Thomas of LSU certainly understands too.

I will save the NBA Draft history lesson for another time, but few NBA or college basketball fans will argue that the Draft has become more about Potential than Production.

This transformation has happened for several reasons. First, General Managers, Scouts, and Owners are terrified to be the one how passed over the next Kobe Bryant or Kevin Garnett. Second, taking the young hotshot has become the SAFER thing to do in the NBA. If you draft Tyrus Thomas this year, you automatically get a 2-3 year honeymoon stage because it "takes time to develop" young players.

As an NBA prospect, you must maximize your draft value. Remember, draft value is not the same thing as what is best for your basketball skills or personal development. In fact, draft value is sometimes at its highest when you are young and not fully developed. Why? Because being new, young, and underdeveloped equals Potential, and Potential does equal Draft Value.

Unfortunately, the longer you play at the highest level of college basketball, the more opportunities scouts have to find "holes" in your game. Plus, other teams will begin to scheme to stop you defensively and that will make it even harder to succeed.

You have to "strike while the iron is hot." You have to make the jump when you are the "next great thing." Don't wait too long, or someone else will replace you.

For example, Paul Davis at Michigan State had a good Freshman season several years ago. He was forecasted to be a lottery pick if he decided to leave early. He didn't leave and his game struggled his Sophomore year (other teams focused on stopping him). At the end of that year, he had dropped to late first round. He returned to East Lansing and played his final two years. There is no question that he is a better basketball player now than 3 years ago. However, his draft value is minimal. His "holes" have been exposed. He stayed too long. I had an NBA scout tell me this week that Davis "improved every year under Coach Izzo," but his draft value plummeted during those same four years.

Knowing what you know about draft value, put yourself in the shoes of a guy at the top of his personal basketball mountain. Tyrus Thomas is a name that most basketball fans didn't know when Midnight Madness was held. I would go so far as to say that most SEC basketball fans didn't know the name until the second half of the conference schedule. All what a difference, 3 weeks in March can make. By the end of Final Four weekend, Tyrus had vaulted to the front of the NBA Draft lists.

It can happen that fast. Remember, Tyrus did not even start for LSU until 10 games in to the season. For the season, Tyrus averaged 12 points and 9.3 rebounds. A solid freshman season in the SEC (actually, he was named SEC Newcomer-of-the-Year). He didn't start the first 2 games of the NCAA tournament because of some minor injuries.

After the first weekend of the tournament, Tyrus had averaged 20 minutes, 8 points, and 5.5 rebounds. Not exactly Lottery pick type numbers.

After the Sweet 16/Elite 8 weekend, you could book the plane to Madison Square Gardens and cancel that lease in Baton Rouge. Tyrus chose the biggest stage of his life to play his best two games. Against Duke (insert sound of church choir singing "Halleluhia"), Tyrus started, scored 9 points, grabbed 13 rebounds, blocked 5 shots and help shut down Shelden Williams. For the encore against Texas, Tyrus simply logged 39 minutes, shot 10-14 for 21 points, grabbed 13 rebounds, and blocked 3 more shots. He displayed his trademark athleticism and emotion. He played very well.

At the Final Four, Tyrus enjoyed the media spotlight which shines the brightest at the annual pinnacle of college basketball. In the ugly UCLA game, Tyrus struggled with foul trouble and only managed 5 points and 6 rebounds.

Evaluate Tyrus Thomas. I say, "exciting young player with outstanding athleticism. At 6-9" and 220 lbs, he will need to develop a face-the-basket game at the next level. More athlete than basketball player now but has potential." Lets be honest. He is not even the best player on LSU's front line. Big Baby has more basketball skills in one BIG Leg than Tyrus has in his whole body. No defense focused on shutting down Tyrus this season.

NCAA champion Florida made Tyrus look his age in February when he managed only 2 points and 4 rebounds but registered 4 personal fouls. In his college career, all 32 games and 21 starts, he had almost 3 times as many games in which he scored in single digits (11 games) than he did scoring more than 20 points (4 total).

Look for Tyrus Thomas' name in the mock drafts put out by the experts, you will find it among the Top 3-5 players. That's right. He turned a Weekend of Highlight reel play in to a Top 5 pick.

Congrats, Tyrus you made a great decision. Toss Rudy Gay a Kleenex when you head out of the green room, he is just now realizing he should have come out last year.

2006 Derby Memories

I had a great time covering both the Oaks and Derby on WSZ 1570, 1600 and 1250.

We gave reports from all over the track all day. I really enjoyed my time in the paddock and the Winners Circle. As you probably know, the broadcast rights for the Derby are owned by Westwood One (Radio) and NBC (TV) so all other media outlets have to stop about an hour before the race and not go back until after its over.

After the race, the winners circle photo, and the trophy presentation, Barbaro was being walked to the backside by his groom. The saddle and the Roses were off his back, and Barbero was gazing into the stands and jumping around a little. I commmented off the air to the WSZ crowd that

"Barbaro has no idea what he just did. He doesn't realize that he is going to be knee deep in horse "pu***" for the rest of his life."

Scott found the comment compelling, but we could not figure out how to edit it to use on air. Everything we tried, really stole its thunder. Eventually we agreed that to edit the statement would be like listening to the Walmart edited version of Rap music. So we saved it for this forum.

Other Derby Highlights:
(1) Mike Peagram in Paddock and Winners Circle
Before Race 8, I was in the paddock when Mike Peagram came in to watch his filly Pussycat Doll (I think) saddled for the race. As soon as people realized who he was, they start screaming his name and waving him over. Peagram is the guy who owned Real Quiet and is known for partying before, during, and after the Derby each year. He is exactly what is right about Horse Racing.

I had been in the paddock for a while by then and knew what the crowd wanted. There was a group of people who were trying to get famous people to hold a concrete Gnome (like the one in those annoying travelocity commercials) and get their picture taken. As Mike walked towards me, I got his attention and motioned towards the group. I said, "your fans are welcoming you to Louisville." His response was classic. He said, "I love it that my fans are always the drunkest and loudest in the building." He slapped me on the back and went straight to the rail and got his picture taken.

Then, his filly (a Real Quiet sired horse bred by Peagram himself) goes out and wins the race. In the winner's circle he cracks open a Coors Light tallboy and kills it in a few gulps. He is my kind of guy.


(2) Watching the Gentleman yell at his waitress because all the $1,000 mint juleps were sold out.
Right next to the Media center (6th floor at the Finish Line) was the Turf Club or GOld Club room (some private party for really BIG bettors). The two rooms shared a bar/concession stand the whole weekend. On Derby Day, this guy was irate because he didn't get the chance to pay 1,000 large for a drink. I felt bad for the waitress for several reasons. First, its not her fault. She didn't make the drinks and choose who could buy it. Second, even a cheapskate is going to tip atleast 10% on that purchase which equals $100 for the waitress.

(3) Dude screaming at the top of his lungs minutes after the Derby.
Again inside the BIG bettors' party, this dude was running around and screaming with joy. I finally found someone who knew him and asked what was the deal. Apparently, he had just won 70 large on the Derby. I don't know how much he had down on the race but regardless, he was making some profit.


When I get more time I will share more stories.

Oh yeah, I don't want to get anyone in trouble but lets just say that the Concession stand served free beer and soft drinks for media members. By the end of Saturday, I realized that it must be easier to WRITE stories after drinking then it is to TELL stories after drinking. The print media was hitting the brew early and often.