2006 NFL Draft: Elvis Dumervil
Each year that I follow the NFL Draft I think I have just about figured "it" out and about that time, the Denver Broncos select Maurice Clarrett. I am reminded of what a very successful NFL agent told me a few years ago, the Draft is a living and breathing thing that will surprise each year.
There are some general rules that hold true for the most part.
Ask Elvis Dumervil what he thinks about the term Measureables. I am sure he would tell you a lot off the record. Scouts have a set of numbers in their minds that prospects, by position, must meet. At defensive end, the minimum is 6'2" and 250 lbs. and the optimum is 6'5" and 285 lbs. At the NFL Combine, Dumervil measured at 5'11" and 257. Thus he is labeled as "too short" to succeed in the NFL. True, he will be the shortest defensive end on any NFL roster next season; however, no one in the world will measure him again once he is on the field.
The fact that he is a few inches shorter than the scouts see as a minimum does NOT mean he can't or won't succeed in the NFL, but it DOES mean that he will not be a high round draft pick. That is a fact. I don't care if Elvis had 30 sacks instead of the nation-leading 20 he finished with, he was not going to be a 1st or 2nd round pick. The Mel Kiper's of the world should never have moved him into the 1st round projections during the college season. They should know that once the Draft season (meaning the All-Star games, NFL Combine, and Pro Day workouts) started that his value would be deflated.
I monitor the opinions of NFL scouts and Draft gurus throughout the year. I can tell you that the NFL scouts that I spoke with did not increase the stock of Dumervil once he started posting the incredible numbers early in the year. They continued to remind me that he was short, not "Dwight Freeney" fast, and susceptible to the run. He did raise his value from a late round pick to the middle rounds in the eyes of NFL Scouts, but his rise was nothing compared to the rocket rise that some Draft gurus gave him. For example, one guru with a signature hairstyle had Elvis as the 50th DE preseason. By the end of October, he had Elvis as a top 3 DE prospect being selected in 1st round. Now, he has Elvis being selected in the 4th round.
My point is that Elvis' draft stock has not fallen as far as the gurus would tell you. In fact, Elvis is about where he should be and as high as he could have expected before the season started.
Elvis just needs to remember that the following rule is the one that holds true more often than any other.
I would predict that some team with an attacking upfield rushing scheme will be very happy to select the Nagurski award winner in the 4th - 5th round area. If he is in the right system, Elvis will succeed and play for 8-10 years in the NFL.
There are some general rules that hold true for the most part.
Players without the Measureables (i.e. height, weight, 40 time) will fall in the draft below where their production on the field indicates they should be selected.
Ask Elvis Dumervil what he thinks about the term Measureables. I am sure he would tell you a lot off the record. Scouts have a set of numbers in their minds that prospects, by position, must meet. At defensive end, the minimum is 6'2" and 250 lbs. and the optimum is 6'5" and 285 lbs. At the NFL Combine, Dumervil measured at 5'11" and 257. Thus he is labeled as "too short" to succeed in the NFL. True, he will be the shortest defensive end on any NFL roster next season; however, no one in the world will measure him again once he is on the field.
The fact that he is a few inches shorter than the scouts see as a minimum does NOT mean he can't or won't succeed in the NFL, but it DOES mean that he will not be a high round draft pick. That is a fact. I don't care if Elvis had 30 sacks instead of the nation-leading 20 he finished with, he was not going to be a 1st or 2nd round pick. The Mel Kiper's of the world should never have moved him into the 1st round projections during the college season. They should know that once the Draft season (meaning the All-Star games, NFL Combine, and Pro Day workouts) started that his value would be deflated.
I monitor the opinions of NFL scouts and Draft gurus throughout the year. I can tell you that the NFL scouts that I spoke with did not increase the stock of Dumervil once he started posting the incredible numbers early in the year. They continued to remind me that he was short, not "Dwight Freeney" fast, and susceptible to the run. He did raise his value from a late round pick to the middle rounds in the eyes of NFL Scouts, but his rise was nothing compared to the rocket rise that some Draft gurus gave him. For example, one guru with a signature hairstyle had Elvis as the 50th DE preseason. By the end of October, he had Elvis as a top 3 DE prospect being selected in 1st round. Now, he has Elvis being selected in the 4th round.
My point is that Elvis' draft stock has not fallen as far as the gurus would tell you. In fact, Elvis is about where he should be and as high as he could have expected before the season started.
Elvis just needs to remember that the following rule is the one that holds true more often than any other.
Where you are Drafted does NOT help you perform on the field.
I would predict that some team with an attacking upfield rushing scheme will be very happy to select the Nagurski award winner in the 4th - 5th round area. If he is in the right system, Elvis will succeed and play for 8-10 years in the NFL.
posted by Conrad | 9:54 AM
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